Fredegar wrote:DunninLA wrote:So, how about this for a rule:
Runner(s) on, 3rd base unoccupied. Lead runner medium or fast. Technique: Scoop. All other situations, Technique: Block.
Fredegar wrote: Scooping may indeed work for your DD
Actually this isn't about my DD, it is a general question about odds, and the best odds at a pitch in the dirt with a fast/med lead runner, with nobody on 3rd.
Fredegar wrote: And because there are bound to be more passed balls, it will ultimately result in more runners advancing, not fewer.
Well, that's my question. WOULD more fast/medium runners advance, on average, or fewer. How do you know?
Suppose for every 100 pitches that hit the dirt:
Scoop:
Successful scoop = 65%
Runners who attempt to immediately advance when they see dirt fly: 70%
Runners who attempt to advance only when the ball gets past the catcher: 30%
Fast/medium Runners who are thrown attempting to advance: 70%
Using the hypothetical numbers above:
35 runners successfully advance on the failed scoop as the ball goes to the backstop
13 runners advance, and 31 are thrown out, on a ball in the dirt that is successful scooped
21 runners wait when they see dirt, and on a scoop, stay at their bag.
Total scorecard on Scoop: 48 runners advance, 31 are thrown out, and 21 remain at their base.
My question is, since this is entirely hypothetical, what are the REAL numbers? Has anyone actually studied this?
The same hypothetical with the Block might look like this:
Block:
Successful block = 80%
Runners who attempt to immediately advance when they see dirt fly: 70%
Runners who attempt to advance only when the ball gets past the catcher: 30%
Fast/Medium Runners who are thrown out attempting to advance: 30%
Using the hypothetical Block numbers above:
20 runners successfully advance on the failed Block as the ball goes to the backstop
32 runners advance, and 14 are thrown out, attempting to advance on a ball in the dirt that is blocked
24 runners wait when they see dirt, and on a good block, stay at their bag.
Total scorecard on Block attempt: 52 runners advance, 14 are thrown out, and 24 remain at their base.