tbjd33 wrote:AlwaysImprove wrote:Problem is you will not know early verbals are a fail until after their freshman year.
I think parents have gotten smarter about the process. There are still plenty of evidence of the breakdowns.
Still a number of teams with 30+ on the roster, 10 freshman and graduating 4. Still a number of transfers.
The problem is that 13 year old has little to do with the 18 year old that will be walking into college. At 13 kids largely live to satisfy their parents. They do not really get a say of their own in this life changing, life determining decision.
Parents are getting what they want. College coaches are getting what they want. Select coaches are getting what the want. The continuously increasing transfer rate shows that kids may be the only ones not getting what they want.
My only concern with the current petition is that NCAA is likely not going to understand it. In every other sport early verbals has allowed kids to create opportunity. Softball breaks down because once a kid verbals they are no longer recruited.
Football, Men's Basketball, Women's basketball kids are recruited right up until the NLI is signed. Verbals in these sports work much better as the kid can use the verbal to get a deal with a medium school and use that to work up to a better school.
AI everyone is more cautious and getting much smarter. I agree the first wave resulted in more than its fair share of negative outcomes. Now those numbers as a whole are different.
Take a look at the top schools. Most are finished with 2018 and will be done with 2019's by start of spring. Their numbers plate not outrageous with three or four on average. Look at the number of seniors and they will backfil this same. Look at Arkansas that's an issue... They verbal everyone and don't give $$ to it. Those kind of schools are the ones to be concerned about.
Sky isn't falling...
I did not say the sky is falling. Just that there are problems. Teams like Arkansas, ULL, SDSU are certainly examples. There are definitely worse.
The crowd used to be a lot larger and included Az, UW, and many others. They have only really straightened their act because they know it is getting discussed and causing them quality recruits.
I think you assume most parents are like yourself. Here, there, UCS, getting educated. Most are probably not. Look at the mistakes that well educated parents make routinely.
I would say a bigger break down can be seen from Pdad's numbers. Those 149 2018's and those 24 2019's are the most highly recruited of players. They should easily have the most flexibility, the most options. They should be able to play school A against school B and have their pick. Yet in the softball system they are the ones that lock in at the youngest age. Never reconsider their decision over the 4+ years.
Willingly removing themselves from the market as 8th graders or HS freshman. For nothing more than a 'unenforceable' verbal.
NCAA should definitely be looking into the collusion that freezes the marketplace. Why schools stop recruiting prospects once they verbal. The smart thing for a school would be to strike up a conversation with one of those top 2018's see if they can get them. Yet they do not do it.