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Where was the blind draw at Stockton!

Questions and discussions involving PGF

by Goldball4 » Tue Jun 17, 2014 11:38 am

If there was a blind draw, tell me how many were there! Norcal all playing norcal teams, SoCal all playing SoCal teams. All norcal games at 8 in the morning. All SoCal in the early afternoon! First 4 games all norcal except for 1 team!

I call bullshit on the blind draw Pgf! There was no blind draw , no way it works out exactly like that.
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by onlooker » Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:10 pm

Goldball4 wrote:If there was a blind draw, tell me how many were there! Norcal all playing norcal teams, SoCal all playing SoCal teams. All norcal games at 8 in the morning. All SoCal in the early afternoon! First 4 games all norcal except for 1 team!

I call bullshit on the blind draw Pgf! There was no blind draw , no way it works out exactly like that.


I couldn't locate what this was in reference too, now I see it.


eta: Now I see it on grapettes website...18U Stockton qualifier (why they post there before PGF site I will never know)
Not sure how it was derived, but after a quick count the top bracket has 20 teams north of bakersfield, the bottom has 17.
While going down the first 4 or 5 in top bracket, yes it appears Nor Cal vs nor cal, but 37 of the teams are from Nor Cal on a quick count, that probably adds up then.
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by PDad » Tue Jun 17, 2014 1:19 pm

Goldball4 wrote:Norcal all playing norcal teams, SoCal all playing SoCal teams. All norcal games at 8 in the morning. All SoCal in the early afternoon! First 4 games all norcal except for 1 team!

I call bullshit on the blind draw Pgf! There was no blind draw , no way it works out exactly like that.

Exaggerate much? Take a closer look at the times and match-ups:

Time . NC v NC, NC v SC and SC v SC
. 8:00 5-3-0
10:00 2-3-2 (+ SC w/ bye)
12:00 4-2-2
. 2:00 1-5-1 (+ SC v LV)

Totals 12-13-5

Most of the SoCal teams are playing a Norcal team - only 5 of the 31 games have an all-SoCal match-up. Norcal is a little heavy on the 8:00 games, but it is well within the normal variances you get with such a small sample.
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by Sftbll4ever » Tue Jun 17, 2014 1:22 pm

Plus they have teams listed on the bracket that have already qualified, things will change.
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by PDad » Tue Jun 17, 2014 1:40 pm

Sftbll4ever wrote:Plus they have teams listed on the bracket that have already qualified, things will change.

Which teams? I believe the AASA on the bracket is NOT the one that qualified.
Last edited by PDad on Sun Jun 22, 2014 6:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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by Goldball4 » Tue Jun 17, 2014 6:45 pm

Uh yeah not exaggerating too much. Games 1-6 , 10 out of 12 teams norcal!

My point is , where is the blind draw? Never have we entered aqualifier without a blind draw! The 16s in Salinas is whacked out also. I just dont want pgf turning into the org. they abandoned . We play at noon vs. another socal team. We win that winner of socal, win that another all socal branch. Just a little weird for me. We need blindcdraws at all these events period! Can't disagree with that I hope! Someone will though haha!
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by PDad » Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:00 am

Goldball4 wrote:Uh yeah not exaggerating too much. Games 1-6 , 10 out of 12 teams norcal!

The odds for that happening were 3.9%, which is 41% greater than rolling snake eyes or box cars (i.e. 2.8%).

My point is , where is the blind draw? Never have we entered aqualifier without a blind draw!

Never? You've been around for a fairly long time - how can you be so sure? SoCal ASA and PGF have been good about holding public draws for SoCal qualifiers. I don't see how you could be so sure about other sanctions and/or TD's.

... We play at noon vs. another socal team. We win that winner of socal, win that another all socal branch. Just a little weird for me. We need blindcdraws at all these events period! Can't disagree with that I hope! Someone will though haha!

The odds of 4 SoCal teams being drawn at that time was 2.7%, which is slightly less than rolling snake eyes. However, that was just 1 of 15 groups of 4 and the odds of 4 SoCal teams being drawn together like that somewhere within the brackets was much greater - possibly 40-50%.

It is normal to have streaks within a series of outcomes. That's what keeps betting strategies (e.g. doubling down after a loss ) from working because people don't have big enough bankrolls to survive naturally occurring losing streaks. I don't see any compelling evidence the draw wasn't done randomly.
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by CTCBAT » Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:34 am

What are the odds two teams drawing the same matchup two qualifiers in a row???
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by jonriv » Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:52 am

Not sure of the odds- had it happen in three seperate tournaments(two different states) one year back when my DD was in 14u
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by PDad » Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:21 pm

CTCBAT wrote:What are the odds two teams drawing the same matchup two qualifiers in a row???

For a specific pair of teams in the NorCal qualifier, it is 1/63.

I need to know how many possible match-ups there were to compute at least one of them happening again in NorCal.
Last edited by PDad on Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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