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PGF Qualifier Berths?

Questions and discussions involving PGF

by faster » Wed May 28, 2014 11:32 am

So cal....72 teams participating 4 berths
Arizona 25 teams 2 berths
Alabama 3 teams and 2 berths
Kansas 9 teams and 1 berth
Virginia 13 teams 2 berths
South carolina 10 teams 2 berths
Indiana 18 teams and 1 Berth
Colorado 16 teams 2 berths
Atlanta 4 teams 2 berths
Nor cal 64 teams 3 Berths
Ohio 20 teams and 1 Berth
New Jersey 42 teams 5 Berths
Illinois 30 teams 1 Berth
Las vegas 20 teams 1 Berth
North Texas 3 teams 2 berths
Oregon 20 teams 3 Berths

So the math today suggests there is 1 berth for each of the 15 teams entered in Calif, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona
(4 States)

and approximately 1 berth for every 8 teams in the rest of the remaining States across the country
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by onlooker » Wed May 28, 2014 1:48 pm

faster wrote:So cal....72 teams participating 4 berths
Arizona 25 teams 2 berths
Alabama 3 teams and 2 berths
Kansas 9 teams and 1 berth
Virginia 13 teams 2 berths
South carolina 10 teams 2 berths
Indiana 18 teams and 1 Berth
Colorado 16 teams 2 berths
Atlanta 4 teams 2 berths
Nor cal 64 teams 3 Berths
Ohio 20 teams and 1 Berth
New Jersey 42 teams 5 Berths
Illinois 30 teams 1 Berth
Las vegas 20 teams 1 Berth
North Texas 3 teams 2 berths
Oregon 20 teams 3 Berths

So the math today suggests there is 1 berth for each of the 15 teams entered in Calif, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona
(4 States)

and approximately 1 berth for every 8 teams in the rest of the remaining States across the country


good math, but to add to that, 1 per 30 if Illinois, 1 per 20 if Ohio, 1 per 18 if Indiana are the worst odds numerically (meaningless to talent) or 3 per 68 if midwest. I think its pretty clear, based on historical data they have (albeit short in tenure), that they DO know how many teams will show up at each region AND of those teams showing up how many are historically PGF competitive. Lets not fool ourselves and say these guys just pick qualifiers and have no clue who will show up. They don't know who exactly, but they have a great idea of how many teams will travel in to these, hence why they select the berths they do.
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by onlooker » Wed May 28, 2014 2:03 pm

wow!!! now that I read what I typed, here is a different way of PGF telling the US how they grade our regions on a scale of "PGF worthy".

Indiana, Ohio, Illinois - 1 in 22 teams they come across at qualifiers are PGF worthy
1 out of 21 teams in Nor Cal is worthy (there's no So Cal weighted here, just too many teams, this is probably spot on!)
1 out of 20 Las Vegas (So Cal weighted, I would suspect they expect these teams to be so cal teams)
1 out of 18 teams in So Cal is worthy (this is probably spot on)
1 out of 12.5 AZ teams is worthy (this is probably weighted with some so cal / vegas talent)
2 out of the 3 Alabama teams are worthy (probably weighted with a little texas and or georgia)
Kansas 1 out of 9 are worthy (Texas weighted for sure which means they think a team from Texas will probably take this - guessing)
Colorado 1 out of 8 (Montana, Wyoming, Iowa, Dakotas)
Oregon 1 out of 7 (Washington, Idaho)
New Jersey 1 out of 7 are worthy (Northeast)
Virginia 1 out of 6.5 are worthy (Georgia weighted)
So Carolina 1 out of 5 are worthy (Georgia weighted)
Atlanta 1 out of 2

Wow again.....now that I have typed this, it makes perfect sense. All of the locations and all of the ratios seem to be about right off top of head for talent. This just doesn't happen, its calculated.
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by PDad » Wed May 28, 2014 4:06 pm

When Faster and Onlooker aggregated their totals, they didn't take into account that teams are entered in multiple qualifiers. In other words, they counted some teams multiple times because they simply added the team count for each qualifier together. This results in their ratios being overstated.

They also only counted the teams that have paid. There are also a lot of teams listed as starting the process and a significant number of these will enter.

It would be interesting to see how the final counts compare to the current ones.
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by onlooker » Wed May 28, 2014 4:29 pm

Ahhhhhhhh!!!! That's all on Faster. I took his numbers. hehe. However, does "who" signed up even matter? if the entrants # is accurate, "who" doesn't matter, "how many" does. at least that's what im thinking? good chance I may not understand proper math.
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by NumeroUno » Thu May 29, 2014 7:43 am

Fastpitch4Life I don't want to talk bad about a place I've been some bucket head might live there. You know..one mans trash is another's man treasure :)

All I can say is do your research and head east
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by jonriv » Thu May 29, 2014 9:04 am

So the conclusion(based on the math) is that PGF is a hard tournament to qualify for and most of the qualifying teams will be from California ;) Not sure I would need math to figure that out? :D
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by Fastpitch4Life » Thu May 29, 2014 9:32 am

NumeroUno wrote:Fastpitch4Life I don't want to talk bad about a place I've been some bucket head might live there. You know..one mans trash is another's man treasure :)

All I can say is do your research and head east


We qualified early, I was just baiting you a little to hear about the "good old days" and hear others impressions of some of their travel experiences. So far only Midland, Texas has come up, so every other tournament town in America must be "treasure," I've been to Soboba so I know that's not true...
"I learned the path to Heaven is full of sinners and believers,
learned that happiness on earth ain't just for high achievers."
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by PDad » Fri May 30, 2014 1:14 pm

onlooker wrote:Ahhhhhhhh!!!! That's all on Faster. I took his numbers. hehe. However, does "who" signed up even matter? if the entrants # is accurate, "who" doesn't matter, "how many" does. at least that's what im thinking? good chance I may not understand proper math.

Faster's list of qualifiers is incomplete. In the Midwest, there are actually 2 more qualifiers in IL and IN.

However, you both combined entries from multiple qualifiers and treated each entry as a unique team.
onlooker wrote:good math, but to add to that, 1 per 30 if Illinois, 1 per 20 if Ohio, 1 per 18 if Indiana are the worst odds numerically (meaningless to talent) or 3 per 68 if midwest. ...

There are only 52 teams in the 68 entries for those 3 qualifiers due to some teams entering 2-3 events, so the ratio is really 3 per 52 (1 per 17.3).

Of the 103 entries in the 5 mid-western qualifiers, there are only 62 teams. So, that makes it 5 berths for 62 teams (1 per 12.4).

Some of the events are billed as showcases, so not all the teams are trying to qualify. Here's a summary of the number of entries per team:
- 3 teams entered 4 events
- 9 teams entered 3 events
- 14 teams entered 2 events
- 36 teams only entered 1 event, so I doubt they're trying to qualify for a PGF berth.

I say the real odds are closer to 5 per 26, which is 1 per 5.2 teams.
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by ontheblack » Fri May 30, 2014 2:25 pm

somewhere on HB are some threads from around 2010 discussing teams that mailed in checks and got berths simply because there were not enough teams to play. I believe Bruder pulled this off in a Florida ASA qualifier that never happened. Cant remember the town, but Florida humidity in the summer may qualify as a God forsaken hell hole.
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