Batting avg. vs. plate appearances

[coolstuff]

I keep the team stats, so I have a close up view of how the coaches are using certain players at the plate. There are 11 players. As the team advances in the tournament the coaches use less batters in the line-up. I understand that strategy completely. It's the players they choose to take out of the line-up (and conversely, keep in the line-up) that I don't understand. So I made a list of players by batting average, and a list of players by plate appearances. For some players, there are big differences.

First question is, is this a good way to assess how effective the coaches are in using the right hitters at the right time? If I'm looking at this a wrong way let me know. When I look at the list by PAs, it doesn't follow the usual batting lineup at all, so I'm sure this is not due to that. I think it is due to certain players sitting out of the batting lineup.

What I see happening is that players with better batting averages are getting LESS plate appearances than players who have lower AVG. For instance, the player with the most PAs on the team is 7th in AVG. Another player is 5th in PAs yet 10th in AVG. The player with the best AVG on the team is 7th in PAs, and the 4th best AVG is 8th in PAs, both with about 25% less than the 1st. And for the record, my DD is 8th in AVG and last in PAs, and has not been batting well lately, so this is not sour grapes on my part.

So am I just driving myself crazy or is this an indication of the quality (or not) of the coaching?

[cinnaman]

It is obvious you have taken alot of time to look at your situation. You starting to see the complexity of coaching decisions.

As a coach I look at who I'am pitching and set-up my defense. Then I put together the batting order. The nine batters are then placed on the line-up based on hitting ability and speed. The batting average and plate appearances are taken into account based on who the opponent we are playing. The roster may change depending upon the opponent or whether this is a pool or bracket game. These are just quidelines.

You should sit down with the coach and schedule a time when he or she could explain what he does with the batting average and plate appearance information. Communication with the parents is really big with me. It eliminates the grey areas.

[Martin]

BA is one of many, many factors that a good coach will use to pick his lineup. As you have already surmised, taking care of DD and placating loudmouths are not on that list of factors.

First off, you don't select a lineup based on past performance. You select it based on the PROBABILITY of future success. There is a nuance here that is important. Just because you did well in Game #1 doesn't automatically mean you have a high probability of doing well in Game #2. There are lots of reasons why a coach might think a player's chances of success are less than another player with a lower BA, such as:

- The next pitcher throws a distinct type of pitch that the player has troubles with.
- The player is fatigued from playing multiple games.
- The player has "padded her stats" by facing relatively weak pitchers in earlier rounds.

Another potential problem with BA is that you may not have a very large sample size to form your opinion. 20 PAs (or even 50) is not considered sufficiently high to make judgments based solely on statistics. It is possible the coach has been working with these players for many years and therefore has the benefit of knowing his players' potential to a greater degree than this year's stat book would suggest.

There is a problem with BA in general. It is not the sole determinant of a player's offensive value. Many folks will tell you it is not even the most important offensive stat. OBP, SLG and many other offensive stats are at least equally important. Speed on the base paths is important. Being able to bunt is important. A coach must weigh all these considerations when selecting his lineup.

Finally, a coach must consider defensive abilities when selecting a lineup. I'm a big "offense" guy, so I tend to favor the axim, "If you can hit, I'll find a spot for you to play." But not every coach goes with this philosophy. Certainly, the positions of pitcher and catcher are significant enough that a weaker hitter with strong defensive skills will play instead of the stronger hitter who can't throw strikes or manage the game behind the plate.

Those are few reasons why players with higher BAs would be left out of the starting lineup on Sunday. For you and your DD, I hope one or more of these is a factor on the team you keep score for. If the decisions have more to do with bloodlines and bothersome parents, you might want to ask yourself whether the experience is worth you and your DD's time and money.

Good luck!

[2bucketdad]

On Base precentage is much more important to me than BA or PA.

[DonnieS]

Stat that I look at pretty closely is Runs Scored per P/A and Runs Scored per AB.

[coolstuff]

Thanks for the replies. As I thought this is a complicated subject.

Martin, about half the players were on this same team last year with the same coaches, so they may know more than me about potential abilities. My DD has a great OBP, base path speed, and has a knack for drawing a walk (twice as many walks than the closest other player). All the batters have at least 50 APs and the top is close to 75. I've run SLG stats and shared those with the coaches. I'm also trying to be aware of who the pitcher/catchers are who might sit ready to sub when needed. Admittedly, I'd love to see DD get more APs because that will only help her work on her swing. (She's working with a hitting instructor who has made some adjustments to her swing and she's working through those.) Anyway... that got me looking at how the batting lineup is set.

[Martin]

Coolstuff,

It sounds like you're already fairly certain you're unhappy with the situation. What does your DD think? If she is not happy with her playing time, I recommend she (not you) approach the coach and respectfully ask what skills should she be working on in order to get more playing time. This would show great maturity and dedication and I believe any coach worth playing for would react positively to the question. This may not guarantee increased playing time, but at least your DD will know where she stands and what she should be working on.

After hearing your DD's version of this meeting, you may still have questions. If you approached the coach with an attitude that demonstrates you want to support his decision by helping your DD work on skills that need improvement, this should also be a positive conversation.

If neither of these conversations are possible with your current coach, perhaps you need to reevaluate your participation on this team.

[anonlooker]

Saw Bill James on 60 minutes a couple weeks back... he's a stats guy came from nowhere and is now working for Boston Red Sox as resident guru...

A lot of interesting stuff if you google him...

watch the 60 Mins episode here...

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/ ... 4752.shtml

He ranks OBP and Slugging % well above BA (and most anything else, for that matter)